A risk analyst estimates a cost item as optimistic $80,000, most likely $100,000, and pessimistic
$150,000. Using triangular distribution, what is the expected value?
Correct Answer: B
Explanation:
For a triangular distribution, expected value is calculated as (Optimistic + Most Likely + Pessimistic) ÷ 3.
Here, ($80,000 + $100,000 + $150,000) ÷ 3 = $330,000 ÷ 3 = $110,000. This method gives equal
consideration to all three estimates.
Question 2
A project has a most likely activity duration of 20 days, optimistic duration of 14 days, and pessimistic
duration of 32 days. What is the PERT expected duration?
Correct Answer: C
Explanation:
PERT expected duration = (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6. Here, (14 + 4×20 + 32) ÷ 6 = (14 + 80 + 32) ÷ 6 = 126 ÷ 6
= 21 days. PERT is useful when duration uncertainty exists and three-point estimates are available.
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